EURUSD climbed higher. Overview for 07.04.2023

The situation with the unemployment claims in the US is, indeed, weird. For many weeks, this report used to be a stronghold of stability and optimism that represented confidence of the employment sector. Everything changed last week, when the figure of primary claims sky-rocketed to 246 thousand from the average median value of 195-200 thousand. Yesterday, the statistics confirmed the change: the figure turned out at 228 thousand against the 200 thousand forecast.

The US Ministry of Labour claimed that starting this week, it would be accounting for the seasonal multiple in the statistics. However, this is unlikely to change anything as long as the labour market is flooded with the unemployed.

This development was not unexpected. Due to the Fed’s high interest rate and constantly growing crediting costs, companies can no more be competing over the workforce. This is also represented by a decline in the number of part-time jobs, in the number of new vacancies, as well as in the number of the fired. Corporations are laying off the staff fast and straight-out, pursuing the goal to make their businesses live.

It seems that the problem has just started to unfold. With this kept in mind, the US average wage report for March, the NFP, and the full unemployment rate report scheduled for today are going to be especially informative. Most probably, the data will come out weak, which could make the USD retreat further.