Euro stuck below parity. Overview for 15.09.2022

The market major today remains weak, the current quote being 0.9975.

The statistics from the Euro zone published yesterday disappointed investors and compromised the EUR. Industrial production in the region in July dropped by 2.3% m/m against the forecast 1% and by 2.4% y/y against the forecast growth by 0.4% and growth in June by 2.4%.

These statistics very well reminded investors about what is going on in the real sector of economy due to the growth of the CPI and the consequences. In such circumstances, further comments of the ECB about its readiness to increase the interest rate at next meetings remained in the shade.

On the other hand, the more actively the ECB behaves now, the fewer chances it will have to react severely in the long run. The rate cannot be lifted fast and repeatedly as such a mechanism has too many side effects. And while the Fed is ready for such a risk, the ECB is unlikely to have enough strength. To put it simply, the current mood of the ECB should not be overestimated.

Today investors will be saving power until the American session, when a block of statistics will come out in the US. The release will include reports on retail sales in August (some unpleasant surprises may occur here), industrial production, capacity utilization factor, and import prices. Also, the weekly unemployment claims report will come out. The data in most cases is expected to be disappointing. This might increase the demand for the USD.