EURUSD: downed and drowned. Overview for 16.02.2023

EURUSD remains under pressure. The current quote is 1.0710.

On the whole, the US statistics published yesterday supports market confidence that the Federal Reserve System has reasons for further tightening of the monetary policy.

Retail sales in January grew by 3.0% m/m more than expected. After a decline by 1.1% m/m in December, this is a real miracle. Consumers were active all over the market: retail sales except cars grew by 2.3% m/m.

Growth of industrial production in January reached zero instead of 0.5% m/m forecast and the decline by 1.0% m/m in December. The capacity utilisation index dropped slightly to 78.3% instead of growing to 79.1%.

Investors decided that these were the same trumps at the Fed’s hands as inflation reports. This means nothing prevents the Fed from lifting the rate by 25 base points not just twice but three times or more before the situation stabilises.